The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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The Asian Ultimatum: Europe, US and the South of everything!

Participants of the East Asia Summit: ASEAN AS...

Participants of the East Asia Summit: ASEAN ASEAN Plus Three Additional members Observer (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Politically incorrect, rhymes and trading dings, bells and sing song rompers in 10 Downing Street, the year of the Queen, the year of the Dragon and the year of those proverbial needle in a haystack issue (Re)elections. The world would have coasted, if it werenot for rabble rousing that kept fires burning and a couple of new religions in the land of the midnight sun.

The century ahead of us belongs to more consumption albeit in Asia, more Resource based war mongering albeit on the Economic brink for Brazil and Russia who have apparently survived the worst (Brazil hasn’t but Russian stock markets definitely feel they are in the pink) and more consumption led mini recoveries from that largest Developed Economy that fashioned many a political movement and even non war research and progress for the Asian world.

Most Asian economies have a healthy chunk of their Global trade queued in and out of the United States and while Canada, Mexico, Europe and Australia try to survive without the gentlemen who set up the noble country in 1783, fought for it since 1765 and wasted a lot of tea and cotton in 1773, most appreciate the role US consumers play in their economy. The resultant political party that presumes a third breakout in US polity of course represents the Americans who don’t trust Asia or any stone outside the US and would rather sling a lot of everything on each other till the day they come to power.

Global trade however is forecast to rise to three fold its volume in the next half century according to a report by HSBC and Asia is going to gradually increase its share without US apparently losing much even as new markets for goods and services replace those in Europe as major trading partners for India, China, Indonesia and even Mexico among others.

The cusp of that jump in trade is going to be a lengthy hiatus till 2014 for everyone esp as the US fails to heal economically and Developed world’s fast approaching limitless unemployment strife takes world employment down to unsustainable levels as almost a third of the working population and half the young under 30 get used to a life of unemployment poorly masked as self employment. The vestiges of a social revolution from Facebook and other social habits that drove dealmaking in 2010 and 2011 have fallen through but resource based Economies have not found a respite either. Yet those with their own markets like India look like they have turned a corner and even the Chinese retail sales albeit on a small base are growing in double digits at 13.2% successively this month again.

However, this is not a revolution where the Dollar will ever cede its position as the world’s dominating currency or even as the Denominator of trade and the Yuan may also try to adopt more frequent weakening, not just as motivation for struggling exports but for a competitive China with its own consumers rather as it tries to run up deficits instead of faster trade surpluses. The first surge of overseas manufacturing and local service provision has thrown up a few deals but it does not look like it is closer to the Japanese domination of the 70s in the US. Also at hand is the fact that apparently (Karl Gerth) the Chinese consumer continues to borrow Western influences rapidly but thru Taiwanese, Korean and Japanese eyes. The Hongkong experiment is saturated and the South East cities have been shut down without new production of resources or factories taking over in the inland districts. The Chinese permeation of its ASEAN neighbours however will dominate our view of the Economic battlegrounds where the wars for recovery will be fought, India watching on in safety and playing its cricket, even as the NFL remains the icon of the United States to show the world.

China’s coming is more likely than that of the Tea Party esp as China’s record with getting Execution through is limitless and ahead of the Tea party phenomenon by leaps and bounds. In the meantime, US Imports did not catch up even as Domestic Car Sales jumped in August and caused some heartburn in those trying to save on Global Oil prices. But then that was and China and the US have a rough month ahead and there is going to be just that Monday Night game or other such event before the holidays kick in and the new US President sits in on a completed 2012 campaign in his second term.

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