Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
The Official Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes in in another 25 as the ADP payrolls do aid the positive sentiment brought on by the jump for Starbucks and Linked in stock in the next era of winners in retail lifestyle but the Elections would hardly be over before we get another stuck in the mud quarter courtesy Hurricane Sandy. and that s all happening eith its epicenter around the $2 B a day golden New York City the big Apple that is reeling from the onslaught of antiquated finance jobs run economy shut down by a ‘couple of squalls’ while the shutdown in New Jersey and all along the Eastern Seaboard makes Sandy’s $150 B in damages petty change compared to the reconstruction, the impact on holiday shopping with halloween around the corner and the good ISM for October at nearly 52 negated by a weak Chicago PMI under 50 and the 15 mln (14.9 MM) run rate in car sales with 15% share for Chrysler again questionable in the next few months despite the redesigned Ram pipping Light Cars in the monthly sales only in the second half of this year and imports will keep rising in that number too.
The US already scored brilliantly on the Trade(not so smart) and Budget Deficit ( a very smart $83 Bln) bu tthe fiscal cliff and spending cuts aside most of its is going to continue and a weak dollar in the final analysis could even be the most important reason US comes back in 2013 after the reconstruction in Sandy’s wake is completed and life moves on. Power and Fuel supplies have not been restored in New Jersey as of today and insurers would be a happy lot despite the extensive damage as Flooding insurance is unlikely to pay for damage from the Ocean. Sales of GM’s Cadillacs and Buicks rose 35% and 27% in October but lost on Q3 results as Sales in Europe dipped 26% despite the Opel brand while Ford managed to make $33.1 B in topline revenues as North America sales made up for the big hole in Europe. Ford margins jumped more than 40% to a 12% Op margin in the US for a $2.3 B Op margin while Fiat improved its topline to more than $26 B on Chrysler sales and pushes its European imports into the Chrysler’s growing share of market int he Continental United States.
Meanwhile the Swedish continue to get paid for providing power to their citizens as instead of spending on Coal they get paid by European neighbours to haul their garbage to the incinerators to run the power plants. If that is not impressive a relook at Starbucks and Linked in performance for the quarter will definitely warm your hearts as Coffee’s final climb down from the top of the Commodity price charts was just one of the about 10 factors including Starbucks big leap of faith on India And CAP (China & Asia Pacific ) markets to drive its growth and near double digit increases in profitability in the US mix, taking the restructuring of their in store offering to Europe this year and in fact entering markets like Amsterdam now with a couple of laurels under the belt and expanding to 1500 stores in China. Linked in takes their story of faith and esoterically digital connected models to a seemingly perfect balance of investment and innovation for investors as it scales up in the coming quarters after having shown the right moves on the EPS in September results.
The Non Farm Payrolls one hopes could easily outperform the mean forecast of 125000 jobs to even above the ADP payrolls numbers of total private employment of 158K ( NFP =115K ) as Mitt Romney gets ready to lick his chops with less than the required 5 Swing states under his belt for Tuesday’s polling. Last four months have produced more than the required 150K jobs with July reaching to 192K after revisions
The September Payroll numbers were revised to 150,000 today and participation report nbear respectable 64% levels at 63.8% while the October Payroll numbers are a tremendous high at 171,000 and Private Payrolls as wwe thought again beat the ADP number at 184,000. That leaves 12.3 million unemployed and a rate of 7.9% that underscores the “We did it” campaigns. After a 800,000 jump from Part Time Employee additions in September another 578000 were added to the Civilian participation numbers in October. 2.4 mln remain marginally attached to the workforce but more have stopped trying