The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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IT’S MONDAY: A US Morning Report to break the silence (again) for growth and optimism

US this week – March 18, 2013 to March 24, 2013

It’s Monday – A US Morning Report on the weekly doo dahs. 

We are a very serious follower of Economic trends esp our own list of identified market and world winning Whale Economies, Whopper Trends, Eclectic Leadership and Industry Leviathans from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to Digitally Eclectic Apple and Amazon and thus our disappearance from this blog has apparently not gone unnoticed. Having been missed is a privilege however, in our new avatar we find the new mix of barely aware and yet employed netizens, serious intellectual wannabes with the desire to shoot the clay targets even before they are released from the high house /low house and the importantly visible layer of business journalists turning into industry speak anchors just some of the few things other than a gridlocked Congress and the seriously victimised and fragmented eyeball spreading social and antisocial variety of net literate marketers who masquerade as the ones to beat after Truman and George Bush (or Ron Paul) and find one obscure reason after another to get stuck on you like you were the teen hottie prepped with the ecstasy and the dreams of your father

FT loves this Empire State Downtown skyline on its flagship pink/yellow/green print

Some stories have survived and we missed key plots of Jigsaw puzzle like the ones that showed you in your childhood how the whole was more than the sum of its parts. These included the Empire State Building IPO that is still to be since the last episodes of the Deal Economy and Deal Insight twin series’. These also included Apple’s fall from grace at a tentative $702 price in mid September as China’s Apple market share  shone at a poor #3 while its Tech leadership continued to sweep its dominance in retail.

Amazon was surprisingly upgraded at the start of 2013 by many brokerages as it came out of a moping four years in the crisis stuck at $226 with a finality around the same time of September 2012, making a final climb since then to almost $270 on the growing Sales topline and its ever growing AWS franchise giving it early dominance in the cloud. Goldman Sachs upgraded it while JP Morgan today downgraded it on the ever consistent cries for limited profitability, one thing still alien to Amazon’s successful business model. Facebook succeeded for all practical purposes with mobile and seriously, as the Economic turnaround got serious globally, the social revolution was almost concurrently found to be of limited impact from Facebook and Twitter to Four square and even Google and Android. Also the gridlocked Congress has not yet delivered a single signing and a wait on one or all of these mega developments really helped shutdown the urge to write all the moves with my own pen.


The events over the weekend are not final and it is likely that all insured deposits ( those below EUR 100k) may be exempted.  As of Monday afternoon, the bad news has already been softened by an exemption on deposits of up to EUR 20,000 from the 6.75% designated charge. Uninsured deposits, part of Cypriot Banks’ deposits of 8X the country’s GDP and 60% owned by Russians from abroad will be levied 9.9% of the deposit as a one time levy on the anointed date. That has probably slowed down some of the bank run triggered by the weekend announcement.

Crystal Ball gazing the rest of 2013 from this week’s data

We would use this weekly report to thus plug the gap between the big data and the big analysis in print so our readers know where the turnstile is for the right train line to their destination or the EZpass for your city CBD entry in the right lane. However, to put it in writing as correction since we started 2013, Europe is likely not making a recovery this year.

The bailout in Cyprus may have catalysed today’s mention but its banking system had soured much earlier and though the banking system had repaired with LTRO since and the sufferers in the Cyprus condition would be Russian offshore depositors (which might actually be a good thing) there are others in Italy and France that are still not fit to be called banks and there are those that still hold the to be debilitated  sovereign and other credit that will destroy more value despite Europe starting another cycle of bailouts laced with austerity from Germany for the big prize and starting off surefootedly again this time with Italy yields below Spain, elections over and Cyprus bailout seemingly already discounted by the market.

European consumers do suffer though the currency is a  stable warhorse falling this Monday to just below 1.30 but likely to continue lower at least below 1.26 and then even 1.20 as more realism comes back and market players try to return to normal market strategies lifting the cloud of the mega global crisis from their investing flows

US is still growing despite a dent in Q4 GDP and this week’s reports on the Housing Market with the Housing starts and building permits data due tomorrow or the other Gasoline and Crude inventories data release on Wednesday. The Hopi (Housing Price Index) and leading indices releases in the latter half of the week that have been pointing to a faster recovery(Case Schiller) and trying to lose the remnants of another recession dip (ECRI and leading indicator) respectively will  definitely bring a finality to the predictions for Q1 even as the first China Manufacturing flash late on Wednesday likely makes it clear that China manufacturing can indeed support a larger chunk of global trade going forward.  The Housing Market index has started Monday off with a disappointment in the meantime at 44, showing December and January’s optimism to be likely to be corrected yet again in March and slowing up GDP scores alongside the continuing growing retail sales of 1% reported last week.

Global review this week

A spate of European Business surveys and PMI reports will come out midweek and are likely to be a little foolhardy in continuing confidence from December’s jubilation in key European markets including the US while Bank credit and interest rate data from India and South Africa likely pointers to a continuing global confidence albeit for a 3% growth. Last week’s Latin American data releases however in a post Chavez world, also pointed to a strong 2013 performance from the continent including the Argentina that struggled in 2012 and the Brazil that is finally confident enough to apply rate cuts.

FOMC March meeting and review

Also Ben Bernanke meets the press after the FOMC Policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday likely to reaffirm the Fed’s commitment to supporting the  unemployment rate target of 6.5%. The Fed will also be releasing composite forecasts based on each Fed Governor’s inputs from the districts and will likely include confident assertions of improvement 30 minutes before the conference.

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