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US Economy:(April 2013 Jobs report) Productivity increases to carry GDP recovery?

Though deeper data slices have yet not been attended to at known blogs( the best yet at calculatedriskblog.com), tonight’s Jobs report was more than an optimistic prediction of continuing recovery int erms of the 165k jobs added. Figures for women unemployed have come down to 7.1% and unemployment is a lower 7.4%. However, one is not sure on the mechanism employed for grossing up the long term unemployed as the number of those unemployed more than 27 months has come down by 687k over 12 months and 258k in April alone. One is not sure of the figure of improvement in the long term unemployed as the improvement in jobs situation of which this number forms almost 2 in 5 persons is actually rather easily explained by our 16-24 year olds staying college one would have thought and of retail not continuing job cuts (though the Challenger Gray Job cuts report says otherwise for the more recent periodafter good offtake in holiday season) and adding more than 20,000 jobs

Calculated risk

The concern already noted by Economists and likely carrying the consensus opinion includes the detrimental effect of fall off in retail and others as increasing productivity hitting number of hours worked, the raw data of 0.7% decrease transliterated by BLS as 11000 job cuts(Marketwatch). Again a deeper analysis could show further productivity gains in retail , housing and even manufacturing while ceding jobs and now hidden in hours worked probably affected by hours worked. However Thursday’s productivity report has already shown that the recovery is well supported by private payrolls (non farm payroll excl public) and despite the cuts in defense and the continuing portions of sequestration, GDP growth is stronger. The overall data was much stronger than expected for increase in 165k jobs but labor participation rate has not moved and part time employed have also moved up by 278k to 7.9 million

Dow hit 15k on way to its weekly closing at1 4,974

Despite first analyses from media rushing to disconnect from the jobs report also lay the blame on increasing costs, increasing costs of labor will have to be absorbed by businesses thru increases in compensation and related increases primarily required conventionally in the quantum of productivity increase as then only one can look to increased prosperity and meaningful GDP growth.

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