Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
Our Monday morning riser was holding a lot of this so we dedicated a new post to more from the Ira Sohn Conference note. In short, ( pun not intended) buy Korea is right, sell Japan is more like a new post in the Abe government or Central Bank if you prefer, Sell Seagate was well times, einhorn being long Apple is welcome but don’t you think someones should be twisting intel too and the end of the pc era has much more for leverage followers than the believers in the next three-four years?
The Ira Sohn Conference too with its longs on Apple and P&G underlined a positive tone last week. Housing prices and Starts data for April come in towards the end of this week while all that discussion will keep the indices in old standing water before and after data busy before the focus on JP Morgan next week. Retail Sales data will hold interest much of the week though the NY and Philadelphia manufacturing indices do come in as well. At the Ira Sohn again, we liked the longs on Korea as well and think the so called shorts on Japan are as much ‘in cahoots’ with the current government’s policies as Abenomics itself increasing the expected objectives of growth and growing interest rates with the sell down at this point in the commodities cycle. The last one in 2009 if you remember was important to throw instead because of the super inflation wrought by the extreme peaks in commodities charts thence and the liquidity ran awash without any tie back to any growth.
Dimon’s threats to quit have sweetened the media focus on Financials as shareholder activists might not get what they ant risking as per Mayo 10% cut in J Morgan’s current price not too good on funds that rode the Financials comeback since October 2012. Of course most analysts like us could ignore the event pooh poohing the notion much like Barclays that these say on pay and Director election votes can define Corporate Governance
China started off Monday on a positive note with retail Sales maintaining near 13% rise on year and Industrial production at 9.3% fueling more into the Yuan jets looking to cream the whopping 1% plus gain in the currency for 2013 as well, looking to stay barely above 6 by the end of the year and not helping KFC and Burger King outlets. Shorting China though..a BIG NO! Already industrial commodities exports are up from their bottom and China is manufacturing well. Equities and Banks stocks in particular may have already had a lot of undue attention and might not respond to more shorting because of the extreme liquidity,. even if equities do, the macroeconomic bug catches fast esp for China as big brother in the region handholds all commodities economies. Still good to bet against the commodities currencies like Brazilian Reais and the Aussie Dollar ( again much in favor of central bank policy of the country long awaiting such die hard hedge fund support to bring their currency down and let back growth and a healthy inflation as vanishing consumption remains the worry globally and Keynesian economies grow old, very very old..
Also, our two bits on JP Morgan’s No Sell in may opinion, we agreed already in the first of the IT’s MONDAY series we started in April. Imagine the kind of Institutional allocations post sell offs in US and Japan Fixed income and how they will exceed all due and undue to high yield, eurobonds, municipals and even if you want to compete within the asset class neighbours, IPOs and structured ETFs and you can see that the commodity cycle bottom is just providing a positive take off point for more US, India but not China or european equities , the only class that has actually reached a stage of euphoria and got cut from portfolios because of the real recession that will stay in there.
Miami is engendering a lot of Conference speak from bankers in 2013, no doubt related to the bigger real estate investors woming out of the wood work after a quiet round of fresh investments in 2011 last. Credit Suisse held its annual event in Miami in February
CIRCLING THE WAGONS!!
A lot of Ira Sohn went by ( a post facto analysis – we weren’t there) with media hunching up on those circling the wagons like the billionaire investors baiting the Fed was quite a catchy theme. No fault of the media and they have done well to bring transparency in ( no tie in to bloomberg, please 😦 ) Also Jim Chanos found the worms in Seagate for which the supplier(Seagate) has been adopting a circling the wagons already buying the rest of the industry (Samsung sold its hard drive business to them) as the product ‘hard disk” vanishes from shelfs and PCs much like Sun hardware before this and intel to come? Shorting intel softly could be a good strategy too only not in the next three months and only if you are ready to watch all their supply chain breakpoints in plan every 2- months till they eventually give up on mobile, sell out or otherwise go private like Dell. It is a big change and whether there is a sun shining at the end of the tunnel or not the tunnel journey can be quite profitable for funds and managers.
Though seriously, buying Google? now? really? Druckenmiller is a Soros partner?