The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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It’s Monday Again: Taxes are good for everyone, the new iPhone a precursor of a cheery Holidays (US Economy and Markets: the week ahead August 12, 2013 – August 16, 2013)

The banks are of course back with a bang. This year’s 25% jump in Financial sector stocks led by the start of the year run in Citi and BofA still puts them behind Consumer discretionary and Healthcare stocks and Tech is still the biggest on Wall Street by a whisker. Not for long. Even as Apple rallied after a late late announcement of a bigger screen iPhone in time for the holidays ( on September 04) Dell had more inklings of the time to come as PC shipments were down 4% in the quarter.

Apple’s sales have been apparently nothing to write home about in some new markets like India after one good month of sales as its share of markets in Tablets also keeps correcting worldwide in favor of the cheaper more ubiquitous Android, all versions of the iPad selling considerably less than the 19 mln expected this quarter and China however improving takeoff this quarter with Apple retail sales  a big big winner overall. Intel’s out of the race a s well, with no mobile platform in sight as Samsung continues to rule. They have 72 mln smartphones this quarter according to the IDC report, a 30% share ahead of Apple’s 13% with the market still just 238 mln units globally and ready to grow more. Samsung’s S4 was also beaten in China though. . Still you have to respectaa company with $52 Bln in a single quarter’s Sales and apparently still Apple’s biggest OEM.

My casual turn of phrases though should be more substantial for you than the average joe out there. most of them verified by fact and good for a big piece of your research budget , updated and more.

The UMich survey is out again despite the recent shunning by investors after the big out in June (Early access by reuters for a fee has prompted an investigation by the NY AG Schneiderman and regular investors at the 9.55 am release did not like it) The US Federal deficit hit a big $100 Bln deficit mark in July but the deficit is still down 38% for the 10 months year to date after the unexpected June surplus. The revenues are up almost 20% till last month, fattened by individual taxes up 18% and corporate taxes up 17% leading one to believe more in the news of the recovery around the mark or maybe reflecting a higher occasion triggered happiness from recently employed on paying their taxes Sequestration helped the deficit in its own way with a 6.2% cut is Defense spending for the year and further reducing Treasury borrowing for the year.

The US week ahead is still heavily dependent on the PPI and CPI inflation data in the middle of the week. Data from Europe suggests that Draghi might push policy pronouncements to snag the ever higher Euro as the slipping inflation target data reports from Germany and the Eurozone tomorrow. UK’s becoming the final stop for the Currency afficionados again after the run on it stopped last month and it continues to report a better string of data across consumer credit, mortgages and now inflation on Tuesday

Back in the Emerging Markets, controls worked wonders again for India’s July trade data, Imports still at last month’s low $38 Bln , give or take a $2 Bln rebound in gold imports matched by a similar rise in Exports for a second month of $12 Bln in deficit. The year’s attempted policy turnaround has still not kicked in for Japan as overall production and investment are down another month

Citi for a change seems to be on the side of the angels as it reports investors should look for value nevertheless in US equities as the asset class returns to favor and outshines all other equity markets billed for a positive closing from here to the end of Holiday season, already at 1700 levels. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were able to hold last week’s levels after a lot of investors dived in on value available in the stock on Monday open.

 

 

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This entry was posted on August 12, 2013 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , .

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