Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
Jackson Hole seemed exceptionally sunny as the search for Bernanke’s replacement is on and despite Bullard and the high rate hit new Home Sales last week a Setember calendar seems all keyed in to the September market launch after China reported better August data to come and US reports a higher than 0.5% growth in GDP while trade with Europe returns seemingly to positive hope. Ofcourse Deal season is back, and that means the banks are working feverishly overnight in the rates and currencies department to make it a good trading year while Jeffries is going first zinger on deals like Amgen’s buy worth another $10 Bln keeping their double digit record quite trigger happy. and well our research desk is all but asleep, thinking up Dollars for our own bucket. Onyx cooke Cancer molecules while Japanese beermakers too, cook new deal recipes in the pacific melting pot as their local markets bother with beer no more including both Asahi and Kirin.
A 20% drop in aircraft Engine manufacturing brought Durable orders down 7%, this times run of high durable orders lasting April May and June on New aircraft orders. Dallas reports production data today and Chicago closes the last week of august on Friday and with Auto sales also keeping everyone happy tomorrow’s GDP numbers and the Case Schiller home price data are likely to be quite fairly positive Heavier falls in ending Home Sales following the correcions in both existing sales and New sales data is going to be easy news for the street, more confusing if the data continues to plough forward with fliping already showing on concerned radar screens and First mortgages markets thoug having considerably bettered from last year for US Bank, BofA and for existing leaders JP Morgan and Wells Fargo
Believe me, apart from a large deal inthe Biotech space, the other fear mongers of a high tailwind deal market are Jeffries, $120 price valuations for Onyx. Not only is the IPO market dead ll the booked interest and price markers for private deals are going to show PE in the red again in 5..4..3..2..1 ..probably as a Nasdaq bulleting for all the criticality brought closer to market bythe competition with dark pools , NYSE and disinterested IPO investors still updating their facebook page.
Guess, Tiffany’s and Campbells Soup come mid week with the last key results of Q2 ad the personal income report o Friday and the Consumer confidence data are likely to be as dull as ever. The Euro is still stuck to 1.33 for a change and the Emerging Markets are still counting down for another 2 months before investors switch back outside the US equities. Another run on interest rates? Very, very likely though japan and china may not trigger these sales this month
Interesting CNBC report last Thursday on how the low taxing Republican states are getting more than $100 Bln in investments lost by Democrat and not so business friendly New York, Chicago and California Well, to me that is still not enough votes for Mr Boehner and the Tea Party to hang so many of their followers
Gold waited till cross ing $1400 and Oil is falling far freer around $110 marks as normalcy retrns to the hotly contested High interest rate scenarios.