The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

It’s Monday Again: It’s the outcry that will follow on the shame!, Free People, Anthropologie and Boeing gone(The Week Ahead: Nov 18, 2013 – Nov 22, 2013, US Economy & Markets) ICE-W:US BA:US NYX:US BAC:US JPM:US PG:US WMT:US Dow kicks the 16k mark starters

 

the New York Stock Exchange was set up in 1792

The low key ICE buyout of NYSE seems to have cleared almost all hurdles with EU antitrust and SEC having given the go ahead as early as June and August 2013 respectively despite other repeated deals notably German Deutsche Borse having twice attempted the masterstroke with a cash rich offer. ICE is better because it has already turned the NY Board of Futures into ICE Futures and paid $8.2 Bln worth cash and stock (decided to pay, in December 2012) One imagines the rollercoaster ride for the promoters as sceptics watched and they finished getting their last approvals last week, notably from each individual country in the EU as Euronext represents around 90% of the Derivatives volumes in all of Europe and the regulations around Derivatives trading and clearing operations were also a treacherous quest till early 2012. However there is as usual one more to do before we hit the mile post and the charts for the individual companies up 46% and 34%(NYX) till August ’13) are yet not to be found having expected a combination

The combined company trades as ICE:US merging the ICE-W and NYX symbols since Nov 8, 2013. NYSE ‘s last two September quarters reported a low 44 cents in 2012 Q3 and 73 cents in 3Q 2013 a big jump , though still peanuts n revenues of $574 mln and an Op margin of . It’s last batch of IPOs as NYSE(Wall Street) included Twitter. ICE Futures earned much the same amount from its Future s business it reported the previous week on just $337 mln in Topline but that was more than expectations. Wish the new pair luck in bringing on board Algorithmic Trading and Futures and Options in competition to the CBOE which continues to grow stronger with every earnings season. ICE earns $40 mln from Market Data services a battleground like Quantitative Trading expected for long to become an overarching obsession with the street, the business like many Financial Ops looking like a poor cousin of its Deal making denizens on Wall  Street despite the big cuts in Trading and investment Banking business.

Segment inspired by a  concise and reliable Bloomberg duo breaker in August 2013

 

Meanwhile, Reuters(http://insider.thomsonreuters.com) and with it a lot of mainstream media is expecting Monday to show double digit gains for Boeing and Urban Outfitters. The apparel company first, managed last reported Comp in September at a high 9% though the other young wear companies including Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF:US) failed. However, the good news did last only one month as the cautionary tale hanging on the Holiday season has been reiterated by Urban (URBN:US) too after October results from its stores.(http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/14/can-urban-outfitters-crush-abercrombie-and-america.aspx)

Boeing (BA:US) reportedly snagged a large order from Etihad including 56 widebodied Jets and an Option on another 26 as Boeing and Airbus locked horns at the Dubai Airshow

Also, as tidbits go, Geithner’s book on the Bailout comes out in 2014 with an evil surprise for Sheila Bair one hears in the FT, and he joins Warburg Pincus as a VP in Private Equity

Even as Europe gets serious in the meantime with a rate cut below the long held floor of 1.5%, there is some movement on the cause to open the continent to a QE sort of unlimited currency flow as Germany is silenced for a bit in the bid to cut the ties to a complete shutdown as te new normal in the continent. The Euro however is unlikely to help till a big QE happens as the Dollar’s strong ride begins and the Euro already looks like it wants to play catch up instead of submit to the US currency from the low of 1.33 after the rate cut

In other key takeaways this Monday Morning, we notice the three countries which are counted as more educated than the United States have also all stalled at 2% growth rates in their latest GDP reports incl Canada, Japan and Israel). (http://247wallst.com/special-report/2012/09/21/the-most-educated-countries-in-the-world/3/)

The Bank settlements aren’t(ain’t :)) a difference either with BofA or JP Morgan not reporting much progress. JP Morgan seemingly has another extra $4.5 Bln with the 21 institutional investors apart from the DOJ Settlement it tried to cap a weekend before 3Q results)

A very good starting point if any of you are joining me for a research project on US equities is using these visual maps from etfdb.com, showing the Top 10 S&P 500 components to be holding a market cap of $2.7 Tln in 2007 and returning to much the same number in 2012 ($2.56Tln for the first 10 S&P 500 citizens), P&G and Pfizer replacing Walmart and Bank of America since(http://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#2012) The Dow has opened to above 16,000 in morning trading after a near record close on Friday

Similar Currency trading databases(http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/top-ten-traded-currencies-of-the-world.pageCd-storyboard,pageNum-2.html#slideshow) show he Dollar involved in 85% of global currency transactions daily, euro in its brief 15 years at 39% and Yen still at #3 leaving the Pound in the mire of the FX scandal currently under the snot and retreating from 1.62 levels currently ready to jump back into business after the disappointing retail sales data is past this week. The Aussie surprisingly is far ahead of the Loony and the Swiss in the Top 5

However, especially after Korea could not deliver and bank credit has been running the Economy asunder as its banks, and China’s new reforms outline the vaast patch of time for investors stuck with a Shanghai index at 2150 (below when the first attempt at a rally started around 2250 last in 2011. Singapore has emerged again as the place to bring Global business, US again #4 in the World Bank survey(http://www.economywatch.com/news/singapore-world-bank-doing-business.29-10.html)

Enjoy Thanksgiving, and luckily we do not have heating bills to worry about here in India and most South Asia

Gold DCZ3 - Bloomberg Nov 18, 2013

The Chart speaks for itself. Except tht there are people who can see a long term investment recovery right now, but Gold could break through these lows as IUS remains ebullient on this recovery

 

 

NYSE on Wall Street

NYSE on Wall Street (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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