The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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It’s Monday Again: Holiday sales up 2% on Thanksgiving, your Grocery order delivered by air, Mortgages under 5%

English: Metropolitan Life Bldg., Manhattan, N...

English: Metropolitan Life Bldg., Manhattan, New York City, in 1911. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The ISM data if you will has good news for the markets but markets opened after thanksgiving at 16060 levels not knowing where to turn despite initial reports pushing up retail stocks.  Earlier on Wednesday, Chicago PMI converted its New Orders led October PMI to a higher jump in employment (60) and supply chain sub indices to score an equally important 63 in November PMI releases. UK PMI since has come in to ahigh 59 , a not so wholesome aberration, but the US data staying healthy is a sure certification of real recovery and real spending in the holiday season ahead.

The ISM data seems to be a two year high at 57 according to the media reports published by the ISM while a late Construction spending report for October (for the shutdown) showed gains at $908.4 annual rate with Residential construction already in a mini tailspin since June down only 0.6%. Spendingon public works grew 4% in the same month

Holiday sales on Thanksgiving make up for small weekend for ‘Black Friday’

Not only did opening at  8 AM on the holiday work for most , it made up for the 6 less days in the Holiday season as far as Black Friday is concerned and Topline sales would probably even have grown enough to keep profits at least the same as last year and probably more than a fig leaf for Macy’s tough competitors including JC Penney and others who latched on to Apple’s first time sales at under list price

Reuters estimates 131 mln numbers from NRF for CyberMonday which will likely be as spread as Black Friday itself, Target advertising itself as Cyber Week compliant this morning


Andy Sorkin joins in the crowd to influence Dimon’s changing ways

Amazon to push drones into service if FAA allows in 2015

Same day delivery challenges from Google and others lining up all retailers forced online only Amazon to posit drones or all same day orders including light groceries as Bezos showcased on the CBS “60 minutes”

Watch Bloomberg catch the all encompassing FCs from Amazon which promise 75000 jobs this year

Twitter sale still on

The initial cool down period locked out, institutional buyers started nibbling at $42 levels with DB and GS backing Twitter at Buy ratings even as the NASDAQ, also up 23% this year started the week slow. We are seeing more traction for JPM and MS neutral ratings on the stock as we stick to a magic $46 barrier for those buying and selling that social fraternity

No, Axel You are right Europe is not coming back

Reuters Europe Anchor Axel Threlfall started another week ‘boosted’ by UK Economic data as US lies low in the Thanksgiving spirit, shouting hoarse about the non existent recovery in Europe even as retail and Housing data hit aberrant highs in what seems to be a one off break from a despondent trend. Meanwhile the FX rate fixing allegations have sit well with regulators examining the London market for deals with wheels inside. Check out Axel here,

Food Stamps in this years Christmas Bill?

Ft showed up with a Monday report from the Hamilton Project pointing to the one in eight American Households that recieve food stamps and that fresh food consumption could grow 25% among low income households, while spending of $80 bln on the same has come under fire in the recent farm bill where Reublicans propose cuts of over $40 Billion

More Hospitality IPOs coming through

After STAY announced its athetic condominimum hotels were going to go for $1 million renovation packages for rooms from the relisting IPO proceeds (after all it is a Blackstone investment), Hilton also went public in the mainstream media with an IPO in the $20 range that values the hotels at $19 Bln and change

Aramark, saved by Goldman Sachs Capital Partners among others wikll be relisting as ARMK soon with a $720 mln including 8 mln shares from investors

BofA settlement with Freddie

Close on the heels of JP Morgan’s thanksgiving present ( to JP Morgan) BofA also announced an already prvisioned $404 mln settlement for damaged goods(Loans)  sold to Freddie at the height of the pre crisis fun-a-thon for America’s alt-homeless


Bitcoins continue to rule , priced at above $1000 even as the exchanges look to restart the bull game from record 16000 levels on the Dow and 4000 on the NASDAQ

Apostolic Exhortation

A JP Morgan economist in the meantime has a serious defence of the markets in mind when he wrote apparently targeting the ope in his market commentary report

Housing Recovery or Bubble?

While our latest reading of the CAPE from Robert schiller ( Recent Nobel Laureate) was fine , the Economist does write about it indicating a bubble

Year on Year price growth from the NAR Price Index and the Case Schiller Index showed annuall prie data esp in the high lands of San Diego and Oakland continuing to grow at double digit rates ( retty much every where outside the New York City burroughs including in Manhattan) and multifamily units construction that entices investors and renters continue to grow in Permits and Existing sales data though Housing Starts will be published only on December 18

At noon markets were back to Friday close levels with the S&P back at 1800. Jumbo Mortgages were under 4.5% (rates from even as the bond sell down is well underway

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