Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
The IPO hits, the Buybacks, Can Deals make it in 2013 too
2013 was the biggest for IPOs in recent history with a late coming in the fourth quarter, and with IPO markets strong, companies were smiling from the buybacks they invested in including a 16% uptick for the huntsmen of Apple, but the late rally may also see smiles on the face of the dealmakers as M&A deals try to race against the clock which would definitely make investor Meets in February bearable for all the trader/investment bankers out there as Advisory chrges rule Investment Bank earnings with America’s community banks and smaller private banks doing their bit to keep the banking deal markets alive too.
The Goldman Sachs’ sacked bonus
Earlier Euromoney led reports that Goldman Sachs Rates and Foreign Exchange business that had collapsed in September (see “Bank Results Season” for the low down as GS brought in $1.25 Bln in FICC) Reports are that Goldman Sachs’ Bonus guidelines at 40% are likely to hit Partners and even lower ranked staffers hard this 2013 in terms of bonuses, with no mass exodus following the lower top line this year. BofA (BAML) beat Golmaan Sachs out of a Top 10 lace in the FX markets this year(Euromoney poll) In case you need that Euromoney link, its Macaskill on Markets, another favorite Column of bankers, with Abigail still around but still busy at UBS.
Central Banks, Banking Union, Central Banks
European data survived another month but even as Draghi waxes eloquently about the need to close ranks around the Banking union and the benefits of the Liquidity Overdraft, France hit another seven month Low and the Euro was still rising on empty promises regardless of the recovery with negative credit continuing in bank reported data and Germany the only positive growing nation again. Italy’s wavering fortunes on the Budget deal also hit another low note with Economic Data turning South yet Ireland walked out this week as the winner of the Bailout Rematch with its head held high for simply evaporating bank debt that failed to make the cut on EU negotiated bailout contracts with
IIF led private bank investors suffering the least in terms of haircuts , compared to the austerity imposed on the governments themselves.
Where’s that Economy headed, then?
The decisive FOMC meet starts tomorrow even as the US Dollar begins its mentored move down into weaker levels but the threat of a Strong Dollar hangs over the US Economy soon even as inventories surpluses eke out another 3% number in the GDP (Second Report in End November for Q3 2013) The Taper is hardly a threat though and no longer because the Economic news is bad. The Consumer Credit report showed a jump back in Credit Card debt at the start of Winter/Holiday Season and predictably as of last week, the Oil companies were again pulling out all the stops , but as of now there is no saying it will be more than higher inventories in a few weeks again as Christmas passes by.
After a heady 2012 for Higher Education, the Consumer Credit bill keeps fattening the Consumer credit report every week too, matching the $6 Bln in revolving credit into the Fed Balance sheet. Long Term Foreign investors were net buyers as the Fixed Income market finally hit ground floor on expected yields to start warehousing US debt just for the interest payments
The Taper Connection
The first Taper passes into the Economy’s make up no later than this week ( probably still as good as the earlier June 2014 calendar) and it does not impact the US view of the world.
The Bloomberg Top 10 at Market Open included the Verizon Intel Deal, but there is the $16 Bln BP shale deal and the Charter Comms (Liberty Media) offer for Time Warner Cable [again(!) ] and almost a dozen others . Morning Bulletins also screamed about Ed Snowden’s theft of the “Keys to the Kingdom” as Privacy gets headlined into 2014. While on Bloomberg, Matt Miller is a good goon to follow with Mt Gox championing his style and life this week (Bitcoin curious only)
Other Economic Data – THE WEEK AHEAD
US Economy also got its Cap Utilization upgraded this week for October by 0.1% as the current report recorded a higher than expected 79% 6 month T Bill auctions last week recorded a rate as low as 7 bp as the PD(Primary Dealer) offtake picked up across all terms. The 30 year auction reported a 45% PD offtake. But there is a lot of things wrong with the CPI and REdbook reports that come out tomorrow before the FOMC announcements on Wednesday afternoon as US Oil imrts dulling down take half the fall for inflation screeching to an halt except the late November reports on spend
Housing Crisis Makeovers
The Housing reports all week with the NAHB Index tomorow, Mortgage Apps on Wednesday and the all important Existing Home Sales report on 19th will be critical but lower scores arlikely to leave markets unfazed as Multi Family units continue to entice Investors and renters in the Post crisis Post modern solution by the poskets stiffed in these 5 years. The Empire and hilly Fed Index can almost be ignored as the U Mich Confidence Highs will be lighting up tailgating parties at the last College Football Bowls under the BCS regime from the coming Saturday and the Giants were shut out again in a NFL Week 15 match yesterday night.
The NFL Post Season
Detroit Lions can still stop the under average Ravens who seem to be making post season like the top of the pile Broncos probably hurt their #1 chances getting hit by a San Diego Chargers team. Broncos get one more chance as the other best score in the Conference is from their Division colleagues in the Kansas City Chiefs who might still lose one more of the remaining encounters tied by injury. Each story in the AFC is stunning as Cincy could still peg the Patriots down one and Miami Dolphins graze that field in almost a meditating stupor, sleepwalking into the layoffs
The NFC makes up for the excitement with the return of the Bears ans the Carolina Panthers with Seattle managing to bring the 49ers back for the post season as well. But ‘mores cooking at the tailgate party for the Trojans in Las Vegas as they face a toughie in Fresno, and next Monday’s dates with the Beefs and the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday featuring Ohio fending off East Carolina from the Football bedrock and Boise trying the fortunes of a depleted Oregon State on Christmas Eve (in Hawaii)
TWITTER, the IPO
The mortgage toughies Wells Fargo were again first off the exits as they downgraded Twitter after it hit $60 on upgrades at JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley in the institutional/greenshoe playoffs. one thing tht looks Crystal at this time is that Twitter definitely can drop one zero off all costs and prices in the USA and world wide( witness, Top 500 Marketing Budgets across the USA enjoy free twitter, so marketing budgets too could actually come off one zero or more) and the game (NFL, College Football is very much on (Twitter)
Superbowl 48 though will not be just on Twitter but live in East Rutherfor NJ, where the hail and sleet(just more snow!) hosts New York Giants and the Jets all year. Of course, you already know Bruno Mars plays at this Halftime show. Details of the years’ biggest Marketing binge ( and we solemnly swear to have a Bud in hand) will again include Audi and Coca Cola but E*Trade sits the baby out. Prices for a 30 second spot were up to $4 mln this time and it seems Chris Christie and Newark could be hosting half a riot despite the steeper ticket prices. A yogurt one on one is on the cards too with Chobani and Danone (Oikos) both confirming spots while Chevy is likely launching let’s say 6 of its promised dozen new models on that day. Hyundai , is also re-launching its new Genesis luxury sedan in its 7th Superbowl but can that comany ever produce anything new , remains to be seen.
J P Morgan Chase in Jacksonville, UK back from the brink
Also Chase is one the verge of a great new invasion in the Eastern Seaboard but down south in Florida while across the pond, the UK economy is coming back with the FTSE snapping a four day losing streak maching the Dow highs spot for spot on Monday’s trades and that island and Mark Carney can still go to town about a 3% inflation in a stark contrast to near 0(ZERO) levels in the USA and the EA-17 Euro countries