The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy & Markets (The week ahead July 21-July 25, 2014)

It’s Monday Again! The Top 100 Brands(Core), Tax Inversions, A short trade on the Euro

The CoreBrand survey gave into temptation and scores totted up another round as #1 and #2 for Coke and Pepsi in a survey also including Kelloggs and Harley Davidson in the Top 10. GE and Apple entered the index for the first time removing disparities with the other Top 100 brand survey from Interbrands( as far as we need to see right now) and IBM is also in the Top 10

Investing.com reports a n important likely change in the Euro sentiment as the trader go short on the Euro but also decrease positions in the Yen when they should have been concomitantly exiting US 10 year and longer bonds after the Yellen drawdown in the address to the Congress. However from all reports Junk bond investors and munis are the big exits even as Fund exits from long term bonds did not stop sovereign and other hot  money buying of US bonds

The Chicago FNAI leading indicators report later in the morning to show the leading indicators favor as we enter the Fall quarter, The Consumer inflation data coming in tomorrow and the rest of the week dominated by home sales data before the PMI Index Flash reports for US China and India come in towards Thursday /Friday Night (India data usually reports only in the final format a week later with all avl respondents)

Existing Home Sales comes on Tuesday FHFA pricing index on Wednesday and New Home Sales report on Thursday

The US Durable Goods Orders will also point to the US Economy health ahead of the final GDP data estimates for the completed quarter, starting off the pegging of the higher 300k jobs data for the report next week vis a vis the earlier smaller 200k number bringing the bond investors back

The US retail energy inventories report on Wednesday followed by the japanese data overnight

In the mean time US business celebrates the continuing success of Tax inversion strategies with Abbvie completing the Shire merger alllowing it to save precious tax dollars in the international jurisdiction. British GDP data follows the news celebrating China on Friday open with the Euro economy reporting some key retail sales and trade data before the loan growth data on Friday

Positions in Gold just point to traders trying to capitalise onthe Euro zonen blues and will likely be easily beaten by a positive trade on the US Dollar and continuing depreciation in the Yen to 104 levels

More US pharma players would likely look to expand business size in Europe following the Abbvie merger

According to  a FT report (fast FT) following Julius Baer, the international wealth specialist is a little blue as it chokes over Merrill Lynch pay packets and costs jump higher than the 15% jump in revenues and better profits. The bank seems to be the only one capitalizing on the constantly reducing operations of “All hole in one” European biggies from Barclays and the French BNP/SocGen, RBS and ING to the Swiss pair of UBS and Credit Suisse exiting International ‘investment banking’ and still unwittingly ceding international wealth business.

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2014 by in Uncategorized.

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