The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

US Economy & Markets: (The Week ahead: August 11, 2014 – August 14, 2014)

Its Monday Again! : Wow, One Kinder Morgan, 70 B little pieces

MLPs, if you understand them, are the best example of siloed investments which even in a $20 mln portfolio often do not make sense toegther, esp as many can no longer afford to buy even a fourth of their fund in a single class iof assets, like betting on gas prices, and specifically not nbuying gas assets when betting on oil, buying land? finding bonds that do not get rated below Puerto Rico Electricity and other myriad concerns ont he manager’s watch list. In that Kinder Morgan was a true pioneer till date and is consolidating assets into a $70 B listing to be.

Walmart and Macy’s lead retail lifestyle week in earnings reports as earnings season recently closed and retailers report a month late. The best performers allowing for their new Canada investments include Nordstrom and that significant other, which likely reports later next week(US:TJX, 19-08, Tuesday). Kohls'(US:KSS) reports Thursday with good news from stores in California and Pennsylvania (maybe) and yes, we should definitely be following up on the QSR restaurants but you peeps have not been lending a hand. If you want to, check on US:EAT and US:BRI before getting carried away off McDonalds continuing ‘shoulders shrug’ on earnings or Chipotle and our other initilal favorites you have been following all these years ( Quiznos, Pizza hut, Dunkin: all mistakes, Food internet aggregators and other express delivery: Bloomberg and AJ mistakes)

Don’t listen to the loud bear noises, the equities have righted themselves on cue before Friday last week and Oil and Euro trades have not hit bottom yet, getting some real trading juice on the other side after 6 years of an indecisive crisis ( for these two bull trades)

The risks of US 10 year bonds trading below 2% and tracking the German bunds to 1% have indeed risen as the exodus from high yield engenders more of the bond investor powerplay and cues from Italy have suddenly spelt curtains for safe haven calls in Europe. There is still hopw for a revival based on strong cues for the GBP which will take the Euro back up but likely that trade comes after the Euro strikes out on 1.30 and trends down too.

Thats one social welfare powerplay no one expected to last (outside Europe that is, with all the talk of a free market in the Developed world)

We have a short week  in India even as Investment cycles return and the markets give a standing ovation to a great comeback performance, graying out the big moves in Indonesia and China as the nation celebrates another Independence Day anniversary this week

In Economic news, retail updates take a complementary view on storefront earnings releases except for an overall report on Business inventories Wednesday. There is one Treasury report on Friday, 15th August as well which will show if SWFs have abated buying into US bonds as of June. However the PPI and Import inflation data will continue to be buoyant for Q3 as well as one calculates the upsiude for US economy from the Q2 GDP report of 4% and Muni bonds try to fill gaps in the Kinder Morgan – US 10 year trade fabric

China reports of retail growth in double digits are reports of a smaler organised base and is year on year growth and so will continue showing robust growth for eons to come without moving old hands in the market as PBOC keeps a sharp eye out for excess liquidity and markets trail after an exceptional July PMI report. Shanghai shares finally start trading in Hong kong this week, moving ETFs focussing on China up one notch

Bigger news, investors even hope for a surplus in the Federal deficit in July after a continuing surplus in June for the 2nd fiscal, which brought down the Federal deficit by $365 mln or 28% last month. That report is planned for Tuesday

 

 

Advertisements

Information

This entry was posted on August 11, 2014 by in Uncategorized.

Archives

%d bloggers like this: