The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

The week ahead September 15, 2014 – September 19, 2014 (US Economy & Markets)

It’s Monday Again! Heineken’s on the deal block this time but markets aren’t biting..

internationalThe beer’s all good, but with the Fixed income yields temporarily hitting 2.60% last week, equities do not seem to be responding at phenomenally low short levels, the temptation to break equities apparently as heartwarming as the short trade in oil and gold. I would have thought  the continuing shorts in Oil and Gold meant a great new deal for equities too, but the month was pre announced as a one with promise of investor and data fatigue and a lot of sell down is trying on the first day of the week. The Apple watch was not the only thing that worked for the analysts, investors and market watchers as Heineken pushed SAB Miller’s buttons enough to generate a lot of deal interest in the beer market, though already dominated by one big AnBev, esp after they already got Corona too, successfully under their belt. One hears though SAB Miller might be getting MillerCoors on to MolsonCoors but then maybe its time one got Bostons and Sam’s on to the act too..(jk)I’d rather think more about Brinkers’ and Applebee’s operator Dinequity (US:EAT and US:DIN) not to forget Burger King, Chipotle’s and a lot of high street still going north of the Border at Niagara Falls

The monthly US Fed meeting starts tomorrow and the Fed will keep it soft and easy for the markets, making the hawkish expectations a good take off point for the rest of the week after the announcement before closing on Wednesday. The Big bank trade is looking ugly though, the large bond holdings not helping banks even as we keep extending the inevitable deadline to raise interest rates and the Euro shorts keep getting stronger, leaving US bonds the best investor haven for now.

Meanwhile Economic data has been discouraging for midday sentiment on Monday as well with August production, showing a clear contraction, though inventories and PMI sentiment has been on the up and up marking down more of the return of real estate and production values in the Midwest after a ballast up that started 2014 spring on a bright and cheery high. That bad news followed news from China ahead of expected dullness in the next month Flash data due in just over a week from now.

CPI would be dull to when it is released on Wednesday after tepid retail reports making the week a big downer till Yellen takes centerstage on Wednesday. Meanwhile this Marketwatch analyst has an awesome idea for cash flow opportunity seekers at Drone masters Amazon up in Seattle ( Can Amazon do it?)

BTW no one minds selling off internet and biotech. Go ahead short some more of them. Enough of Alibaba in hock to turn to your advantage and so much more going to sell after the IPO..

The Housing starts data would be great on Thursday again, but yes the big banks may not recover by the end of the week and one should get some pulse of the interbank maret to see how many of the Wall street traders’ are getting in on their own chasing all of them down again after a rally that lasted a year and a half and Eric Holder got them all.


This entry was posted on September 15, 2014 by in Uncategorized.


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