The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

The week ahead:: October 06-10, 2014 (US Economy & Markets)

wall.nameplate-510x380It’s Monday Again! Holder gone, Schneiderman turns on the heat for S&P – Can HP PCs make a comeback?

Even as action against the big banks winds up in Holder’s office term, the NYAG, Eric Schneider man is busy this weekend, pushing in on S&P for being lax on Commercial Mortgage Bond ratings, Bloomberg spreads the word ahead of the new week. Services PMI ticked down as expected but the great Car Sales data was well backed by the US Jobs report number which we well expected to dissuade well wishers again after a musty August for the over 5 mln long term unemployed and discouraged/marginally attached workers.

With another 200k + number, the Jobs report beat the ADP report led expectations for September. The JOLTS data could also well outperform the expected increase to 4.7 mln in hirings and openings in the Jobs market, but the numbers are for August. On Tuesday, the Consumer Credit data also comes out in the afternoon and will likely continue adding $ 3 odd bln in revolver before the big holiday jump coming after a 4.5% GDP for the quarter

The FOMC minutes rush bond markets mid week and make sure a big move for Oil and gold starts off the week on Monday or Tuesday as the trades in those and the Euro markets are sure one way ( South) and that helps fuind managers and traders, trying variously to minimise bond losses when they do move. The Fast FT /marketwatch reports estimate bond funds are holding around 10% iin cash ahead of the big take out days as investors also lead a panic exit from bond markets not being able to stand ground with the big banks having left a lot of bond holdings out of folio and bond investors instead of giving in to higher interest rate moves, hope to fight back to much lower yields ont he trade momentum, the way it happened in Japan all those decades..

The Treasury Budget report on Friday closes down the US report for the fiscal with the deficit having reduced 1 in 4 this year pushing up the Dollar too and the British currency across the seas continues to suffer despite a good show as itremains stuck on the Euro, its partner for 55% of International trade

Mario Draghi is also in Washington this week and on Thursday the President spars with Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer in the media, but apparently nothing big is expected from that meeting.

Even as the newly split MHFI (S&P parent McGraw Hill’s listed financial business) battles regulators for its past excesses, Hewlett Packard is still in the winding down deal market looking to get a split on the table beating its PC and Tablets unit into shape by separating the consumer unit known for its printers not so long ago from the Corporate business. The company has been trying a lot and would get some more days of investments from the elevated market valuations post split ( due tomorrow according to Reuters/WSJ reports)

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This entry was posted on October 5, 2014 by in Uncategorized.

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